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5 min read

Payback, without the optimism

How we model break-even: degradation, tariff escalation, cleaning, inverter replacement. All of it, on one page.

NR Neha Rastogi Energy analyst · 09 Jun 2026
Payback chart on a screen
Break-even is a curve, not a date. These are the four inputs that bend it.

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5 min read

A payback number is only as honest as the four assumptions behind it. Here are ours, stated plainly, so you can argue with them.

Degradation: modules lose a fraction of output annually. We model the manufacturer's warranted curve, not the day-one rating.
Tariff escalation: grid rates rise. We apply a conservative annual escalation to the avoided tariff and state the figure on every estimate.
Maintenance: periodic cleaning and occasional electrical checks, budgeted annually rather than assumed away.
Inverter replacement: one replacement within the twenty-five year window, costed at today's price.

Run those four against a typical 5 kW residential system and break-even lands in the four to six year range across most of North India, with the subsidy applied. Strip the escalation assumption out and the same system takes about a year longer. Strip out degradation and maintenance and you get the brochure number, which we do not publish.

If a payback estimate has no assumptions printed next to it, it is not an estimate. It is a hope.

Neha Rastogi, energy analyst

What to take away

Panel output declines slightly every year; a model that ignores it overstates savings.
One inverter replacement inside twenty-five years is a realistic assumption.
Cleaning and minor maintenance are small but real annual costs.
Payback Modelling Savings
NR

Neha Rastogi

Energy analyst

Builds the savings models behind every RePrime quote, using meter data from commissioned systems rather than brochure yields.

Run these numbers against your own bill

The calculator uses state-wise generation data and the current subsidy slabs. Two inputs, one estimate, no call required.

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